A Sound of Thunder
Chaos Theory was developed mathematically by Edward Lorenz, who served as a weather forecaster during WWII. While conducting research into the challenge of weather forecasting while doing graduate work at MIT, he developed what became known as Chaos Theory. Sometimes referred to as the butterfly effect.
In essence, this is the idea that a very small change in input variables may an imperceptible short-term impact, but eventually deliver a dramatically different result. Sometimes, we know not what we do. For weather, this means it is very difficult to predict weather with accuracy more than 2 weeks into the future.
However, weather absolutely can be predicted years into the future, if we consider the average daily temperatures during summer months versus winter in a specific location. I find it fascinating to assess where the short-term and long-term predictions meet and with what level of accuracy. With continued computational power, we are making progress.
For Strategic Resilience, better forecasts provide better situational awareness.
For entertainment, and a chance to think about the way small things might impact our world, here’s a short story.
“A Sound of Thunder” was written in 1952 by Ray Bradbury. He described the butterfly effect precisely. It’s not as heart-warming as George Bailey in “It’s a Wonderful Life,” but same concept.
Here’s a link to “A Sound of Thunder”
https://www.astro.sunysb.edu/fwalter/AST389/ASoundofThunder.pdf
And a link to interesting information about the founder of Chaos Theory, Edward Lorenz: