Being mindful in the midst

Today there is an escalation of the conflict between India & Pakistan. (source: www.bbc.com)

Coming from a disaster preparedness mindset, where there is a mantra “all disasters are local,” the likelihood and impact rankings provided here are from one perspective, from one country, from one organization.

A global and ranked view of 30 conflicts as of January 2025 according to the US Council of Foreign Relations (source: www.cfr.org/report/conflicts-watch-2025)

Tier I Contingencies (12):

High Likelihood; High Impact

• Israel & Hamas in Gaza

• Israel & Palestinians in West Bank

• Russia & Ukraine

• Israel & Iran

• US & Mexico

High Likelihood; Moderate Impact

• Haiti

• Lebanon

• Russia & Georgia, Moldova

Moderate Likelihood; High Impact

• China & Taiwan

• Cyberattack on US critical infrastructure

• China & countries around South China Sea

• US domestic terrorism

Tier II Contingencies (8):

High Likelihood; Low Impact

• Sudan

• Somalia

• Afghanistan 

Moderate Likelihood; Moderate Impact

• Houthi strikes in Red Sea & Gulf of Aden

• Pakistan & Afghanistan

• Turkey, Iraq, Syria

• India & Pakistan (now listed at top based on yesterday’s news)

 Low Likelihood; High Impact

• North Korea

Tier III Contingencies (10):

Moderate Likelihood; Low Impact

• Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger)

• Nigeria

• Congo

• Bangladesh

• Myanmar

• Mozambique

• Ethiopia

• Libya

• Ethiopia & neighboring states

Low Likelihood; Moderate Impact

• Western Balkans (Kosovo, Serbia)